Logical Analysis Report

Key Focus

  • The current policies are more likely to cause more modest damage - year after year of slightly higher unemployment and slightly slower growth.. . "I would not say that if we avoid a recession this year and next, then, oh, tariffs weren't that bad," she said ...
  • Trump has sent letters to foreign leaders threatening to impose steep tariffs on Aug. 1. If he follows through on those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return. ...
  • Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data - but acknowledge they aren't sure how long.. . By Ben Casselman. July 16, 2025. . When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession ...
  • Consumer prices rose more quickly in June, but for the most part, inflation has remained calm in the early months of the Trump administration. The White House has resisted suggestions that tariffs are pushing up prices: A report from the White House's Council of Economic Advisers last week found that products that often come from overseas had gotten cheaper since Mr ...
  • They point to evidence that the effects of tariffs are starting to show up in the economic statistics, albeit in subtle ways.. . Data from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that overall inflation remained tame in June, but that prices were up sharply in some categories affected by tariffs, such as toys and appliances ...
  • Trump announced on April 2, if allowed to take effect, would most likely have had an immediate, easily recognized impact on prices and growth. ...


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High Level Topics

  • TARIFFS
  • POLICIES
  • INFLATION
  • ECONOMISTS
  • High Level Abstractions

  • TARIFFS
  • ( TARIFFS )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, WHITE_HOUSE )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, TRADING )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, RECESSION )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, PUSHING )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, LEADERS )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, INFLATION )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, GROWTH )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, ECONOMIC_ADVISERS )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, CHINA )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, AUG )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, TRADE )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, PRESIDENT )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, MARKETS )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, GROWTH )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, FINANCIAL )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, ECONOMIC )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, CHINA )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, ECONOMISTS )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, TRADING )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, PRESIDENT_TRUMP )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, POLICIES )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, GROWTH )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, ECONOMISTS )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, AMERICAN )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, WHITE_HOUSE )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRADING )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, TRADE )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, INFLATION )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, GROWTH )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, COST )  top
  • ( TARIFFS, CONSUMER )  top
  • POLICIES
  • ( POLICIES )  top
  • ( POLICIES, TRUMP )  top
  • ( POLICIES, TARIFF )  top
  • ( POLICIES, GROWTH )  top
  • ( POLICIES, ECONOMISTS )  top
  • ( POLICIES, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
  • ( POLICIES, TRADE )  top
  • ( POLICIES, PUNISHINGLY )  top
  • ( POLICIES, PRESIDENT )  top
  • ( POLICIES, PREDICTIONS )  top
  • ( POLICIES, MICHAEL_MADOWITZ )  top
  • ( POLICIES, MARKETS )  top
  • INFLATION
  • ( INFLATION )  top
  • ( INFLATION, RETAILERS )  top
  • ( INFLATION, HARVARD )  top
  • ( INFLATION, ECONOMIST )  top
  • ( INFLATION, CONSUMER )  top
  • ( INFLATION, CO-AUTHORS )  top
  • ( INFLATION, BALL )  top
  • ( INFLATION, ALBERTO_CAVALLO )  top
  • ECONOMISTS
  • ( ECONOMISTS )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, TRADING )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, PRESIDENT_TRUMP )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, HIRING )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, AMERICAN )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, UNCERTAINTY )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, TRADING )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, INFLATION )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, COST )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, CONSUMERS )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, TRUMP )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, TRADE )  top
  • ( ECONOMISTS, TARIFF )  top
  • References

    • ( TARIFFS )  top
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP )  top
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, WHITE_HOUSE )  top
    •   topConsumer prices rose more quickly in June, but for the most part, inflation has remained calm in the early months of the Trump administration. The White House has resisted suggestions that tariffs are pushing up prices: A report from the White House's Council of Economic Advisers last week found that products that often come from overseas had gotten cheaper...
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, TRADING )  top
    •   topTrump has sent letters to foreign leaders threatening to impose steep tariffs on Aug. 1. If he follows through on those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return.
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, RECESSION )  top
    •   topIf he follows through on those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return.
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, PUSHING )  top
    •   topConsumer prices rose more quickly in June, but for the most part, inflation has remained calm in the early months of the Trump administration. The White House has resisted suggestions that tariffs are pushing up prices: A report from the White House's Council of Economic Advisers last week found that products that often come from overseas had gotten cheaper since Mr
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, LEADERS )  top
    •   top"If you're looking for those in the data, you probably aren't going to find them.". . In recent days, Mr. Trump has sent letters to foreign leaders threatening to impose steep tariffs on Aug. 1. If he follows through on those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, INFLATION )  top
    •   topConsumer prices rose more quickly in June, but for the most part, inflation has remained calm in the early months of the Trump administration. The White House has resisted suggestions that tariffs are pushing up prices: A report from the White House's Council of Economic Advisers...
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, GROWTH )  top
    •   topTrump announced on April 2, if allowed to take effect, would most likely have had an immediate, easily recognized impact on prices and growth.
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, ECONOMIC_ADVISERS )  top
    •   topThe White House has resisted suggestions that tariffs are pushing up prices: A report from the White House's Council of Economic Advisers last week found that products that often come from overseas had gotten cheaper since Mr
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, CHINA )  top
    •   topThey found that prices for imported goods, particularly from China, had outpaced those of domestic items since Mr. Trump's tariffs took effect, although prices have moderated somewhat in recent weeks.
    • ( TARIFFS, TRUMP, AUG )  top
    •   topIn recent days, Mr. Trump has sent letters to foreign leaders threatening to impose steep tariffs on Aug. 1. If he follows through on those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES )  top
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
    •   topThe current policies are more likely to cause more modest damage - year after year of slightly higher unemployment and slightly slower growth.
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, TRADE )  top
    •   topEconomists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data - but acknowledge they aren't sure how long.. . By Ben Casselman
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, PRESIDENT )  top
    •   topTrump announced in early April. Those policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China as well
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, MARKETS )  top
    •   topThose policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China as well.
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, GROWTH )  top
    •   topThe current policies are more likely to cause more modest damage - year after year of slightly higher unemployment and slightly slower growth.
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, FINANCIAL )  top
    •   topThose policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China as well.
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, ECONOMIC )  top
    •   topEconomists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data - but acknowledge they aren't sure how long.. . By Ben Casselman.
    • ( TARIFFS, POLICIES, CHINA )  top
    •   topThose policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China as well.
    • ( TARIFFS, ECONOMISTS )  top
    •   topJuly 16, 2025. . When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession
    •   top"Tariffs are making our Country 'BOOM.'". . Not so fast, economists say. They point to evidence that the effects of tariffs are starting to show up in the economic statistics, albeit in subtle ways.
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION )  top
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
    •   topWhen President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession.
    •   topThe current policies are more likely to cause more modest damage - year after year of slightly higher unemployment and slightly slower growth.. . "I would not say that if we avoid a recession this year and next, then, oh, tariffs weren't that bad," she said
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, TRADING )  top
    •   topWhen President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession
    •   topIf he follows through on those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return.
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, PRESIDENT_TRUMP )  top
    •   topWhen President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, POLICIES )  top
    •   topThe current policies are more likely to cause more modest damage - year after year of slightly higher unemployment and slightly slower growth.
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, GROWTH )  top
    •   topThe current policies are more likely to cause more modest damage - year after year of slightly higher unemployment and slightly slower growth.. . "I would not say that if we avoid a recession this year and next, then, oh, tariffs weren't that bad," she said
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, ECONOMISTS )  top
    •   topWhen President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession
    • ( TARIFFS, RECESSION, AMERICAN )  top
    •   topWhen President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession
    • ( TARIFFS, WHITE_HOUSE )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , TRUMP , WHITE_HOUSE )
    • ( TARIFFS, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , RECESSION , UNEMPLOYMENT )
    • ( TARIFFS, TRADING )  top
    •   top... effects of trade policies to show up in economic data - but acknowledge they aren't sure how long.. . By Ben Casselman. July 16, 2025. . When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , TRUMP , TRADING )
    • ( TARIFFS, TRADE )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , POLICIES , TRADE )
    • ( TARIFFS, INFLATION )  top
    •   topThey point to evidence that the effects of tariffs are starting to show up in the economic statistics, albeit in subtle ways.. . Data from the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that overall inflation remained tame in June, but that prices were up sharply in some categories affected by tariffs, such as toys and appliances
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , TRUMP , INFLATION )
    • ( TARIFFS, GROWTH )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , TRUMP , GROWTH )
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , RECESSION , GROWTH )
    • ( TARIFFS, COST )  top
    •   topAn analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs last week found that consumers initially bore only about 10 percent of the cost of tariffs, but that the share had risen to about 40 percent after three months. American companies shouldered most of the rest of the tariff burden, with foreign exporters paying only about 20 percent...
    • ( TARIFFS, CONSUMER )  top
    •   top... of the research firm Inflation Insights, published a detailed rebuttal on Monday, calling the study's methodology into question and arguing that it is too soon to see the full effects of tariffs on consumer prices.. . "If the main point of the C.E.A.'s analysis is to suggest that tariffs are not impacting inflation, then I think they've spiked the ball at the 50-yard line," Mr
    • ( POLICIES )  top
    • ( POLICIES, TRUMP )  top
    •   topBut those dire predictions came in response to the punishingly high tariff rates that Mr. Trump announced in early April. Those policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China...
    •   topStill, economists acknowledge that they aren't sure exactly when the effects of Mr. Trump's policies will show up clearly in the data, in part because there are few if any recent historical precedents for tariffs of this magnitude
    • ( POLICIES, TARIFF )  top
    •   topBut those dire predictions came in response to the punishingly high tariff rates that Mr. Trump announced in early April. Those policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily...
    •   topTrump announced in April had taken effect.. . "The extreme tariff policies haven't happened yet," said Michael Madowitz, an economist at the Roosevelt Institute
    • ( POLICIES, GROWTH )  top
    •   topTrump announced on April 2, if allowed to take effect, would most likely have had an immediate, easily recognized impact on prices and growth. The current policies are more likely to cause more modest damage - year after year of slightly higher unemployment and slightly slower growth
    • ( POLICIES, ECONOMISTS )  top
    •   topWere the Warnings About Tariffs Overblown.. Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data - but acknowledge they aren't sure how long.
    •   topStill, economists acknowledge that they aren't sure exactly when the effects of Mr. Trump's policies will show up clearly in the data, in part because there are few if any recent historical precedents for tariffs...
    • ( POLICIES, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , POLICIES , UNEMPLOYMENT )
    • ( POLICIES, TRADE )  top
    •   topWere the Warnings About Tariffs Overblown.. Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data - but acknowledge they aren't sure how long.. . By Ben Casselman
    • ( POLICIES, PUNISHINGLY )  top
    •   topBut those dire predictions came in response to the punishingly high tariff rates that Mr. Trump announced in early April. Those policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to...
    • ( POLICIES, PRESIDENT )  top
    •   topBut those dire predictions came in response to the punishingly high tariff rates that Mr. Trump announced in early April. Those policies never took effect: The president paused most of the tariffs in response to turmoil in financial markets, and later agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs on China as well
    • ( POLICIES, PREDICTIONS )  top
    •   topBut those dire predictions came in response to the punishingly high tariff rates that Mr. Trump announced in early April
    • ( POLICIES, MICHAEL_MADOWITZ )  top
    •   topTrump announced in April had taken effect.. . "The extreme tariff policies haven't happened yet," said Michael Madowitz, an economist at the Roosevelt Institute.
    • ( POLICIES, MARKETS )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , POLICIES , MARKETS )
    • ( INFLATION )  top
    • ( INFLATION, RETAILERS )  top
    •   topAnother study, by Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard economist, and two co-authors, looked at prices for individual products from online retailers, which allowed them to identify where the goods were produced.
    • ( INFLATION, HARVARD )  top
    •   top... C.E.A.'s analysis is to suggest that tariffs are not impacting inflation, then I think they've spiked the ball at the 50-yard line," Mr. Sharif wrote.. . Another study, by Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard economist, and two co-authors, looked at prices for individual products from online retailers, which allowed them to identify where the goods were produced
    • ( INFLATION, ECONOMIST )  top
    •   top... C.E.A.'s analysis is to suggest that tariffs are not impacting inflation, then I think they've spiked the ball at the 50-yard line," Mr. Sharif wrote.. . Another study, by Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard economist, and two co-authors, looked at prices for individual products from online retailers, which allowed them to identify where the goods were produced
    • ( INFLATION, CONSUMER )  top
    •   top"We're kind of in a new territory here," said Robert McClelland, a fellow at the Tax Policy Center, a joint project of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution.. . Consumer prices rose more quickly in June, but for the most part, inflation has remained calm in the early months of the Trump administration
    • ( INFLATION, CO-AUTHORS )  top
    •   top... suggest that tariffs are not impacting inflation, then I think they've spiked the ball at the 50-yard line," Mr. Sharif wrote.. . Another study, by Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard economist, and two co-authors, looked at prices for individual products from online retailers, which allowed them to identify where the goods were produced
    • ( INFLATION, BALL )  top
    •   top"If the main point of the C.E.A.'s analysis is to suggest that tariffs are not impacting inflation, then I think they've spiked the ball at the 50-yard line," Mr. Sharif wrote.. . Another study, by Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard economist, and two co-authors, looked at prices for individual products from online retailers, which allowed...
    • ( INFLATION, ALBERTO_CAVALLO )  top
    •   top... main point of the C.E.A.'s analysis is to suggest that tariffs are not impacting inflation, then I think they've spiked the ball at the 50-yard line," Mr. Sharif wrote.. . Another study, by Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard economist, and two co-authors, looked at prices for individual products from online retailers, which allowed them to identify where the goods were produced
    • ( ECONOMISTS )  top
    • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION )  top
    • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, TRADING )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , RECESSION , TRADING )
    •   topIf he follows through on those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return.. . Still, economists acknowledge that they aren't sure exactly when the effects of Mr
    • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , RECESSION , UNEMPLOYMENT )
    • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, PRESIDENT_TRUMP )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , RECESSION , PRESIDENT_TRUMP )
    • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, HIRING )  top
    •   topIn response, she said, "we've heard them say, 'We've paused hiring.'". . Recession Watch. Economists'recent forecasting record has been spotty, at best
    • ( ECONOMISTS, RECESSION, AMERICAN )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , RECESSION , AMERICAN )
    • ( ECONOMISTS, UNCERTAINTY )  top
    •   topEven the reduced tariff rates are the highest in decades, and most economists are confident that the policies - and the uncertainty surrounding them - will lead to faster inflation and slower growth.
    •   topGiven that uncertainty, "you might decide to wait because you're going to pay a cost for adjusting your price - you might antagonize your customers."
    • ( ECONOMISTS, TRADING )  top
    •   topJuly 16, 2025. . When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on American trading partners in early April, economists warned of dire consequences - higher prices, rising unemployment and possibly a recession
    •   topSee ( ECONOMISTS , RECESSION , TRADING )
    • ( ECONOMISTS, INFLATION )  top
    •   topEven the reduced tariff rates are the highest in decades, and most economists are confident that the policies - and the uncertainty surrounding them - will lead to faster inflation and slower growth.
    • ( ECONOMISTS, COST )  top
    •   topGiven that uncertainty, "you might decide to wait because you're going to pay a cost for adjusting your price - you might antagonize your customers.". . An analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs last week found that consumers initially bore only about 10 percent of the cost of tariffs,...
    • ( ECONOMISTS, CONSUMERS )  top
    •   topThe job market, too, is starting to show some cracks, and there are signs consumers have begun to pull back their spending.. . Economists expect that evidence to mount in the months ahead, as companies use up inventories built up before the tariffs took effect and begin passing costs...
    •   top... "you might decide to wait because you're going to pay a cost for adjusting your price - you might antagonize your customers.". . An analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs last week found that consumers initially bore only about 10 percent of the cost of tariffs, but that the share had risen to about 40 percent after three months
    • ( ECONOMISTS, UNEMPLOYMENT )  top
    •   topSee ( TARIFFS , RECESSION , UNEMPLOYMENT )
    • ( ECONOMISTS, TRUMP )  top
    •   top... those threats and significantly raises tariffs on major trading partners, the recession warnings could return.. . Still, economists acknowledge that they aren't sure exactly when the effects of Mr. Trump's policies will show up clearly in the data, in part because there are few if any recent historical precedents for tariffs of this magnitude
    • ( ECONOMISTS, TRADE )  top
    •   topThe Economy Seems Healthy. Were the Warnings About Tariffs Overblown.. Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data - but acknowledge they aren't sure how long.
    • ( ECONOMISTS, TARIFF )  top
    •   top. Even the reduced tariff rates are the highest in decades, and most economists are confident that the policies - and the uncertainty surrounding them - will lead to faster inflation and slower growth